Monster El Niño Threatens 2027—Is the World Ready?

El Niño may reduce crop yields this year, drive up food inflation, and heighten the risk of a global food crisis by 2027.

Hosea 4:2 By swearing, and lying, and killing, and stealing, and committing adultery, they break out, and blood toucheth blood.

Hosea 4:3 Therefore shall the land mourn, and everyone that dwelleth therein shall languish=lose or lack vitality; grow weak or feeble, with the beasts of the field, and with the fowls of heaven; yea, the fishes of the sea also shall be taken away.

JP Morgan has warned of potential food inflation early next year due to a historic El Niño and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from the conflict with Iran. Economists noted that challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic have kept food prices high and are likely to continue into 2027.

This aligns with warnings from Goldman Sachs and HSBC about rising food inflation risks. On June 30, Mercy Corps warned of a looming food security crisis due to the war in Iran and the impacts of El Niño. They pointed out that fertilizer and fuel shortages have disrupted planting in vulnerable food systems.

Vice President of Policy & Advocacy at Mercy Corps stated that a strong El Niño could worsen these challenges. A senior manager at Beroe also noted that El Niño is likely to reduce rice yields globally, including in India.

El Niño is expected to drive a 10-20 percent increase in global rice prices due to lower yields and reduced supply. This phenomenon brings wetter conditions to the Southern U.S. and warmer, drier weather to the Northern U.S. and Canada.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 69 percent chance that conditions from October to December may be stronger than in previous El Niño events. A super El Niño could disrupt temperatures and rainfall for months, impacting food production, water security, and fisheries in vulnerable regions.

The United Nations warns it may increase drought risks in Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel, and southern Africa, while heightening flood risks in East Africa and South America.

JP Morgan’s report, “Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm,” suggests that a new global food crisis may be emerging due to the “Five W’s”: War, Weather, Warehousing, Water, and Waste. Food inflation is a long-term issue, expected to rise from 2.8 percent in the first half of 2026 to 5 percent in the same period of 2027.

Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, especially India, Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Korea, will face significant impacts from El Niño due to their reliance on weather-sensitive agriculture.

Additionally, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, threatening global fertilizer supply since the Middle East produces a large share of potash and urea exports.

Mercy Corps emphasized the urgent need for action on June 30, stressing the importance of pre-positioning agricultural inputs and protecting supply chains. Ongoing disruptions could lead to smaller harvests, higher food prices, and increased hunger through 2027.

Additionally, Oxford Economics reported that the Panama Canal has reduced vessel drafts several times this year because El Niño has reduced its water supply.

Typhoons have also shut down major container ports twice in one month. Oxford Economics reports that significant impacts from past El Niño events generally occur in the year after their peak, indicating a higher risk in 2027. Retail prices often do not reflect immediate disruptions at the farm level due to existing contracts and inventories.

Consequently, consumers may not feel the full effects of El Niño on harvests right away, as price adjustments happen gradually over the following months. In India, El Niño and below-average monsoon forecasts could cut sugarcane output by up to 6 percent in the 2026/27 season. Economic impacts from major shocks can last up to 24 months due to supply chain delays and inflation.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also disrupted fertilizer and essential commodity flows, increasing costs and threatening crop yields. “The prolonged El Niño event is expected to worsen extreme weather in 2026, leading to persistent food inflation and significant pressure on the global food supply,” he stated.

2 Chronicles 7:13 If I shut up heaven that there be no rain, or if I command the locusts to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among my people;

2 Chronicles 7:14 If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.

Deuteronomy 11:17 And then the Lord‘s wrath be kindled against you, and he shut up the heaven, that there be no rain, and that the land yield not her fruit; and lest ye perish quickly from off the good land which the Lord giveth you.

Matthew 24:37 But as the days of Noah were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

Matthew 24:38 For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark,

Matthew 24:39 And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

Luke 21:11 And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and diseases; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.

Luke 21:25 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring;

Luke 21:28 And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.

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