Zero Soybean Orders from China, Historically the Largest Buyer

U.S. farmers historically exported crops to China, but this changed in early 2025 when China bought a record 2.474 billion bushels from Brazil, representing 76% of Brazil’s exports through August.

Argentina’s recent soybean harvest has set records. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a final crop of approximately 50.3 million tonnes in 2025, representing a 15% increase over the average of the past five seasons.

Argentina’s exceptional yields of approximately 29.7 60-kg sacks per hectare have flooded global markets with beans. This surge positions Argentina as a viable alternative to traditional exporters, attracting buyers who need a reliable supply amid U.S.–China trade tensions.

Argentina is a major exporter of soybeans, significantly impacting the global market and posing a challenge to U.S. farmers. In North Dakota, ASA Chairman Josh Gackle reports that farmers are losing $100 to $150 per acre, totaling over $400,000 for an average 2,300-acre farm this year.

Recent losses are occurring amid already tight margins and increasing input costs. Industry groups are warning of a rural crisis, as the American Farm Bureau reported a 55% rise in farm bankruptcies in 2024. Producers claim they have never experienced anything like this before.

As profit margins shrink, many are questioning the sustainability of their operations. China dominates the soybean trade, importing around 61% of the world’s soybeans over the past five years—far more than any other country.

Trading patterns have shifted, with South America now meeting demand once fulfilled by U.S. growers. Economists view this as a significant reallocation of global market share, driven by South America’s aggressive production expansion.

Brazil’s soybean production has surged by approximately 40% since 2017, increasing from 4.5 billion to 6.3 billion bushels for the 2024/25 season, driven by expanded acreage and higher yields. In Argentina, farmers have also expanded their soybean area from 15.9 million to over 17.1 million hectares. Recent news marks a significant turning point in these developments.

On September 23, following the removal of a 26% export tax, Chinese buyers began purchasing Argentine soybeans quickly. Reports indicate that 10 to 15 Panamax cargoes, totaling 650,000 to 975,000 tons, were booked for November at premiums of $2.15 to $2.30 per bushel over Chicago futures, which has surprised U.S. farmers.

A trader noted, “These deals were made after Argentina’s decision, indicating China no longer needs U.S. soybeans.” In North Dakota, prices quickly dropped, and Josh Gackle reported that elevators are filling up as farmers rush to store beans meant for Asian markets.

Farms are facing a major challenge due to a lack of buyers, resulting in overflowing storage at grain terminals from Minnesota to Ohio. Farmers must choose between selling soybeans at a significant loss or paying for storage, which is straining rural economies.

Markets reacted sharply, with China’s Dalian futures falling by around 3.5% for both soymeal and soyoil after Argentina’s announcement. Similarly, Chicago soy futures hit multi-week lows as traders expected an influx of South American supply.

Brazilian export prices remain unusually high, averaging $2.00 per bushel above Chicago prices. This is impacting farmers psychologically, who already face high suicide rates. The added stress could worsen this trend, leading U.S. growers to seek new leadership.

In December 2024, the American Soybean Association elected Iowa farmer Dave Walton as secretary to represent around 500,000 U.S. soybean producers. The ongoing crisis has disrupted farming, prompting self-reliant farmers to consider government assistance, as noted by Ohio grower Chris Gibbs.

“They want to avoid depending on government bailouts. China’s quick response shows that food security, rather than just economics, now drives key purchasing decisions. Established grain trade routes can be changed overnight when countries pursue strategic agricultural policies.”

The country known as the “Red Dragon” is China.

Revelation 12:3 And there appeared another wonder in heaven; and behold a great red dragon, having seven heads and ten horns, and seven crowns upon his heads.

Revelation 12:4 And his tail drew the third part of the stars of heaven, and did cast them to the earth: and the dragon stood before the woman which was ready to be delivered, for to devour her child as soon as it was born.

Revelation 12:5 And she brought forth a man child, who was to rule all nations with a rod of iron: and her child was caught up unto God, and to his throne.

Revelation 12:6 And the woman fled into the wilderness, where she hath a place prepared of God, that they should feed her there a thousand two hundred and threescore days.

Revelation 12:7And there was war in heaven: Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels,

Revelation 12:8 And prevailed not; neither was their place found any more in heaven.

Revelation 12:9 And the great dragon was cast out, that old serpent, called the Devil, and Satan, which deceiveth the whole world: he was cast out into the earth, and his angels were cast out with him.

Revelation 13:1 And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

2 Corinthians 4:4 In whom the god of this world hath blinded the minds of them which believe not, lest the light of the glorious gospel of Christ, who is the image of God, should shine unto them.

John 3:19 And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.

John 3:20 For every one that doeth evil hateth the light, neither cometh to the light, lest his deeds should be reproved.

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