Get ready to hear more about El Niño in the coming months as this climate cycle intensifies in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
If it develops as expected, this El Niño will change global weather patterns, causing flooding in some areas and droughts and wildfires in others, while also accelerating global warming. Signs suggest it will emerge by late summer or early fall and could be a strong “Super El Niño,” with significant global impacts.
An El Niño is declared when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific exceed 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, while a Super El Niño occurs when temperatures rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. Some reliable models, such as the European modeling suite, predict that this may happen in the current cycle.
El Niño and La Niña, meaning “the Boy” and “the Girl,” are climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean that occur every few years and influence global weather. El Niño features unusually warm ocean waters and can cause flooding and drought in Africa, severe winter storms on the U.S. West Coast, and increased heat worldwide, along with changes in winds and precipitation patterns.
El Niño is a coupled phenomenon requiring interaction between the ocean and atmosphere. Warmer ocean waters cause the atmosphere to shift heavy precipitation closer to those areas, and the trade winds, which usually blow from east to west near the equator, may weaken or even reverse direction.
Significant shifts in ocean temperatures are impacting global weather patterns, much like a chain reaction. Currently, large volumes of warm water are moving from the Western to the Eastern tropical Pacific, rising to the surface and indicating an impending El Niño event.
Westerly wind bursts transport water from west to east. El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña, are important not just for their meteorological aspects but also for their effects on extreme weather events globally.
El Niño events can cause billions in damage, with stronger events likely intensifying typical impacts. Early detection and prediction of El Niño help forecast changing risks of weather-related events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, hurricanes, and severe thunderstorms, as noted by Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
Weather and climate impacts affect crop yields, disease spread, coral bleaching, fisheries, and other areas of our daily lives. There remains considerable uncertainty about the upcoming El Niño, especially regarding its intensity, according to Johnson.
Spring computer model projections are less accurate than those made at other times of the year, a phenomenon known as the spring prediction barrier. El Niño has its strongest effects in winter, bringing storms to California and the southern United States and increasing flooding risks. It also boosts upper-atmosphere wind speeds over the tropical Atlantic in the fall.
Strong El Niño events increase wind shear, disrupting the formation of tropical storms and affecting the Atlantic hurricane season. They are also linked to heat waves in the U.S. and to the global increase in the likelihood of droughts and wildfires in Australia.
El Niño can cause drought in areas like northern South America (including parts of the Amazon), central and southern Africa, and India. It can also lead to excessive rainfall and flooding in regions such as southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa, Iran, Afghanistan, and parts of South-Central Asia.
El Niño releases significant heat from the oceans into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures. If a strong El Niño continues into winter, it’s likely that 2026, 2027, or both will set records for the hottest years since the 19th century.
The globe is warming at an accelerating rate, and a strong El Niño could further accelerate this over the next few years. If climate change is like riding a gradually ascending escalator, an El Niño year is akin to bouncing on it, briefly reaching record heights. The last El Niño, which wasn’t a Super El Niño, led to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.
The last Super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, with prior events in 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. “Super El Niño” is an informal term used by some forecasters and media to describe a very strong El Niño. Meteorologists are monitoring the warming of Pacific waters, and if the European model is accurate, this could be the strongest El Niño on record.
Hosea 4:1 The LORD hath a controversy with the inhabitants of the land because there is no truth, nor mercy, nor knowledge of God in the land.
Hosea 4:2 By swearing, and lying, and killing, and stealing, and committing adultery, they break out, and blood toucheth blood.
Hosea 4:3 Therefore shall the land mourn, and everyone that dwelleth therein shall languish=lose or lack vitality; grow weak or feeble, with the beasts of the field, and with the fowls of heaven; yea, the fishes of the sea also shall be taken away.
Luke 21:11 And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and diseases; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.
Luke 21:25 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring;
Luke 21:28 And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.
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