A new analysis of expert opinions suggests that the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI)—an AI system with superhuman intelligence is a matter of when not if.
The updated analysis, conducted on February 18 by the principal analyst at AIMultiple Research, reviewed around 8,600 predictions made by scientists, AI experts, and entrepreneurs from 2009 to 2023 to assess when experts believe these events may occur.
A portion of the analysis included 10 surveys conducted with 5,288 AI researchers and experts. The findings suggest that there is a 50% probability that we will achieve human-level intelligence in machines.
Some experts in the field, including AI researchers and the CEO of the AI company Anthropic, believe that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could emerge as soon as 2026. The rise of AGI has been driven by the rapid advancement of transformer-based large language models (LLMs), which are the technology behind chatbots like ChatGPT and image generators such as DALL-E.
Prior to advancements in these technologies, some scientists predicted in 2019 that AGI would either occur by 2060 or might never happen. Unlike human intelligence, there is no theoretical limit to computing power increases.
Moore’s Law suggests that computing power doubles approximately every 18 months. If this trend continues, future AI systems could potentially match human intelligence in terms of calculations per second.
Many now argue that Moore’s Law is becoming irrelevant. The study highlights quantum computing as a solution to computing limitations. Quantum computers can perform calculations in parallel using quantum mechanics, while classical computers, including supercomputers, still operate sequentially.
Quantum computing has the potential to power advanced AI systems with significantly more processing capacity than the best models available today. For instance, during a talk in October 2024, Facebook’s chief AI scientist remarked that transformer-based architectures and current AI approaches are incompatible with achieving human-level intelligence.
He has also encouraged scientists to abandon the concept of AGI altogether. He argues that there is a misleading equivalence between its commonly accepted definition and the actual capabilities of a single human being. In reality, humans are proficient at a narrow range of specialized tasks rather than possessing the ability to learn any and every task.
2 Corinthians 11:14 And no marvel; for Satan himself is transformed into an angel of light.
2 Corinthians 4:4 In whom the god of this world hath blinded the minds of them which believe not, lest the light of the glorious gospel of Christ, who is the image of God, should shine unto them.
Revelation 13:5 And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
Revelation 13:6 And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.
Revelation 13:11 And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.
Revelation 13:12 And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.
Revelation 13:13 And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,
Revelation 13:14 And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.
Revelation 13:15 And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.
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