Astronomers have recently identified asteroid 2024 YR4, which is 196 feet wide and has a 1-in-83 chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Fortunately, it measures only about 196 feet (55 meters) across, making it too small to threaten human civilization.
However, it could devastate a major city. Scientists estimate that it would unleash approximately eight megatons of energy upon impact—more than 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
The probability is low, yet it’s important to note that this represents one of the highest recorded impact risks for a near-Earth object (NEO) of this size. Currently, 2024 YR4 is positioned 27 million miles away and is set to make an extremely close approach within just 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth.
Uncertainties in the orbital path of asteroid 2024 YR4 raise the possibility of a direct impact with Earth. This has placed it at the top of the European Space Agency’s NEO Impact Risk List and NASA’s Sentry Risk Table, prompting close monitoring by astronomers.
If a collision occurs, it could either cause a massive airburst or create an impact crater, depending on its composition. Tracking an asteroid’s orbit is a complex task that requires repeated observations to reduce uncertainty.
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently 1 in 83, one of the highest ever recorded. An engineer at the Catalina Sky Survey commented, “This represents one of the highest probabilities of impact from a significantly sized rock.” The risk corridor extends from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
The predictions may change as more accurate data emerges. “Its orbit is still uncertain, so we can’t be sure if it will collide with Earth. “Estimates of the impact corridor will eventually become outdated with new observations.” The limited information on 2024 YR4’s size and composition is a key challenge.
These factors are vital in assessing the potential damage from an asteroid impact. “Size and composition significantly influence damage, along with impact location. Determining size and composition is currently difficult, as the asteroid is outbound, and radar observations are impossible.” Scientists estimate that 2024 YR4 is about 196 feet (60 meters) wide, based on its absolute magnitude, which relies on how much sunlight it reflects.
Without radar imaging, the asteroid’s size estimate may be inaccurate. A darker surface suggests a lower estimate, while a more reflective surface implies a higher one. The asteroid’s composition is also critical for predicting impact effects. If 2024 YR4 is primarily stony, it could explode in the atmosphere, creating a fireball similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened 830 square miles of Siberian forest.
While the impact effects of 2024 YR4 would be localized, it can potentially cause significant damage upon impact. If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere.’ Definitive answers may not come until 2028 when 2024 YR4 will create a closer approach within 5 million miles of Earth.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 reminds us that Earth faces cosmic threats. Historical impacts, such as the Tunguska event in 1908 and the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013, demonstrate the potential for localized destruction.
Even a small- to medium-sized impact in a populated area could have serious consequences, making planetary defense a global priority. Agencies like NASA and ESA are developing early detection systems and impact mitigation strategies, such as the DART mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory in 2022. If 2024 YR4 poses a threat, similar deflection technologies may be employed.
Revelation 6:13 And the stars of heaven fell unto the earth, even as a fig tree casteth her untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind.
Revelation 6:14 And the heaven departed as a scroll when it is rolled together; and every mountain and island were moved out of their places.
Revelation 6:15 And the kings of the earth, and the great men, and the rich men, and the chief captains, and the mighty men, and every bondman, and every free man, hid themselves in the dens and in the rocks of the mountains;
Revelation 6:16 And said to the mountains and rocks, Fall on us, and hide us from the face of him that sitteth on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb:
Revelation 6:17 For the great day of his wrath is come; and who shall be able to stand?
2 Peter 3:7 But the heavens and the earth, which are now, by the same word are kept in store, reserved unto fire against the day of judgment and perdition of ungodly men.
2 Peter 3:10 But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in the which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat, the earth also and the works that are therein shall be burned up.
2 Peter 3:11 Seeing then that all these things shall be dissolved, what manner of persons ought ye to be in all holy conversation and godliness,
2 Peter 3:12 Looking for and hasting unto the coming of the day of God, wherein the heavens being on fire shall be dissolved, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat.
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